Möbler & Miljö

MØBEL+INTERIØR the trade magazine

Furniture treats in design tandem Joinery craftsmanship and nature panorama The designer's inspiring missteps

It is typical that online shops offer far more opportunities for customized products than traditional retailers, said Käte Hansen.

...who handles production, distribution, and marketing. The manufacturer is the designer's most important partner, and the biggest threat to the industry is illegal Chinese copies."

He therefore tried to project the furniture industry's development along the same pattern as the music industry: "In the furniture industry anno 2028, there will be lots of players on the field. The designer's most important partner will be a multitude of global file-sharing services on the web, through which distribution and marketing will take place and make new furniture designs accessible to everyone. Users will be able to download the desired design for a fee and possibly customize it themselves according to their own wishes, and the actual manufacturing will take place in local, independent print shops all over the world, where a 3D printer will be able to build the finished piece of furniture exactly as the user wants it, so that he or she can then walk home with it under their arm. The worst threat to the industry will be illegal downloading of designs."

PRINT TECHNOLOGY FOR ALMOST EVERYTHING

Alexander Lervik explained that at the moment 3D printing technology is only suitable for materials such as plastic, rubber, ceramics, etc. Other materials—glass, metals, textiles, etc.—will undoubtedly follow as the technology develops. Regarding printing in some of the furniture industry's preferred natural materials, such as wood and leather, it is still far too early to tell, but Alexander Lervik guesses that upcoming breakthroughs in nanotechnology may very well make these material types suitable for 3D printing as well. In 2028, a professional 3D printer will hardly cost more than 50,000 DKK, while 3D printers for home use will be available for a couple of thousand. Production will therefore not require large factories and long transport routes, but

In a thought-provoking manner, Alexander Lervik compared the furniture industry's situation today with that of the music industry in 1988.

What does all this entail, then? According to Alexander Lervik, better accessibility via the internet will first and foremost increase interest in furniture design and other design products enormously. The market will grow and will consist of far more unique and far fewer mass-produced pieces of furniture than we know today. Demand for solid, handcrafted furniture will grow, and original design will be highly valued. On the other hand, large enterprises with mass-produced goods—such as Ikea—will struggle if they do not know how to adapt.

CONSUMPTION WITH MODERATION

The day's final presentation was given by futurist Klaus Æ. Mogensen from the Institute for Futures Studies. His starting point was the agricultural society of the old days, where all production took place locally and was adapted to the user's/customer's needs. The selection, however, was very limited, and it was only with industrialization that options increased. But soon the functional and rational aspects of the new production methods came to dominate. The aim was to increase growth and consumption, while there was no room for the individual's wishes and dreams.

But that is changing radically, Klaus Æ. Mogensen stated: "Just as smoking or drinking too much is not looked upon favorably today, having high material consumption—including luxury goods—will lose status in the future. Instead, it will be about being able to show moderation and demonstrate that you control your own consumption. The consumer decides for themselves and therefore also becomes a co-creator of the products he or she wants."

PREORDER ECONOMY Klaus Æ. Mogensen further predicted that the spread of individualized consumption

Klaus Æ. Mogensen expects that the future will offer large open-source databases with lots of free furniture designs that consumers can download themselves and have produced locally.

...to the so-called "pre-order economy," meaning that no physical production takes place before the item is ordered and paid for. This will mean that there will be no surplus production, that logistics costs, etc., will be greatly reduced, and that environmental impact will be minimized.

"In the future, the designer will not be the expert authority that he or she is today," Klaus Æ. Mogensen asserted. "Instead, the designer becomes a kind of facilitator—that is, a service function that so to speak does all the tedious groundwork in the design process, thereby helping the user to complete the individual solutions themselves." As an example, he mentioned the web service PonokoShop, where professional designers help consumers translate their product ideas into finished objects.

However, this changed division of roles raises a number of new issues surrounding copyright. Many of the companies whose websites allow consumers to design their own products—such as sports shoes from Nike—claim ownership of any customized creation that may result. But that is an old-fashioned perception of copyright that will likely not hold in the new reality, said Klaus Æ. Mogensen. He predicted that the future will offer large open-source databases with lots of free furniture designs that consumers can download themselves and have produced locally.

"In the future, we will see a new dividing line between professionally made furniture, where quality and design are guaranteed, and customer-designed furniture, which will be 'the work of happy amateurs,'" Klaus Æ. Mogensen concluded.

The participants showed great enthusiasm for asking questions, taking both inspiration and food for thought away from the theme day.

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Mobelgodbidder i designparlob Snedkerhindverk og naturpanorama Designerens inspirerende fejlkig

Det er typisk, at netbutikkerne tilbyder langt flere muligheder for customizede produkter end de traditionelle forhandlere, sagde Käte Hansen.

der varetager produktion, distribution og markedsforing. Producenten er designerens vigtigste samarbejdspartner, og den storste trussel mod branchen er illegale Kina-ko- pier.«

Han provede derfor at fremskrive mo- belbranchens udvikling efter samme mon- ster som musikbranchens: »I mebelbran- chen anno 2028 vil der vere masser af spillere på banen. Designerens vigtigste samarbejdspartner vil vere en mangde glo- bale fildelingstjenester på netter, hvorigen- nem distribution og markedsforing vil ske og gore nye mobeldesigns tilgzngelige for alle. Brugerne kan mod betaling downloa- de det onskede design og evt. selv tilpasse det efter egne ensker, og selve fremstillin- gen vil forega i lokale, uafhangige print- shops over hele verden, hvor en 3D-printer vil kunne bygge det ferdige mobel pracis som brugeren ensker det, så han eller hun derefter kan gå hjem med det under armen. Den verste trussel mod branchen bliver il- legal downloading af designs.«

PRINTTEKNOLOGI

TIL NESTEN ALT

Alexander Lervik forklarede, at i gjeblikket egner 3D-printteknologien sig kun til mate- rialer som plast, gummi, keramik m.v. An- dre materialer — glas, meraller, tekstiler osv. — vil utvivlsomt komme til i takt med rek- nologiens udvikling. Hvad angar udprint- ning i nogle af mobelindustriens foretrukne naturmaterialer som f.eks. tre og leder er det endnu alt for tidligt at udrale sig, men Alexander Lervik getter på, at kommende gennembrud inden for nanoteknologi me- get vel vil kunne gore også disse materia- letyper egnede til 3D-udprintning. I 2028 vil en professionel 3D-printer nzppe ko- ste mere end 50.000 kr., mens 3D-printere til hjemmebrug vil kunne fas for et par tu- sinde. Produktionen vil derfor ikke kreve store fabrikker og lange transportveje, men

Alexander Lervik sammenlignede på tankevakkende vis mobelbranchens situation i dag med musikbranchens i 1988.

Hvad indebarer alt dette sa? Ifolge Alexander Lervik vil den bedre tilgznge- lighed via nettet forst og fremmest oge in- teressen for mebeldesign og andre design- produkter helt enormt. Markedet vil vokse og vil besta af langt flere unikke og langt ferre masseproducerede mobler end vi ken- der det i dag. Eftersporgslen på gedigne, handvarksfremstillede mabler vil vokse, og det originale design vil blive hojt verdsat. Derimod vil store foretagender med masse- producerede varer — som f.eks. Ikea — fa det svert, hvis ikke de forstar at omstille sig.

FORBRUG

MED MADEHOLD

Dagens sidste indlzeg tog fremtidsforsker Klaus &£. Mogensen, Instituttet for Frem- tidsforskning, sig af. Hans udgangspunkt var landbrugssamfundet i gamle dage, hvor al produktion foregik lokalt og var tilpas- set brugerens/kundens behov. Udbud- det var derimod meget begranset, og farst med industrialiseringen ogedes valgmulig- hederne. Men det blev snart de funktionel- le og rationelle aspekter ved de nye produk- tionsformer, der kom til at dominere. Det gjaldt om at oge veksten og konsumptio- nen, mens der ikke var plads til individets onsker og dremme.

Men det er ved at endre sig radikal, fastslog Klaus /E. Mogensen: »Ligesom det i dag ikke er velset at ryge eller drik- ke for meget, vil det ar have et stort mate- rielt forbrug — ogsa af luksusvarer — kom-

me til at miste status i fremriden. I stedet

gelder det om at kunne udvise madehold og vise, at man selv kontrollerer sit forbrug. Forbrugeren bestemmer selv og bliver der- for også medskaber af de produkter, han el- ler hun vil have.«

PREORDER ECONOMY Klaus E. Mogensen forudsa videre, at ud- bredelsen af det individualiserede forbrug

Klaus /E. Mogensen forventer, at fremtiden vil byde på store open source-databaser med masser af gratis mobeldesigns, som Jorbrugerne selv kan downloade og få produceret lokalt.

til den sakaldte »forudbestillings-ekonomi« (preorder economy), hvilket vil sige at der ikke finder nogen fysisk produktion sted, for varen er bestilt og betalt. Dert vil med- fore, at der ikke vil forekomme overskuds- produktion, ac logistikomkostninger m.v. vil reduceres kraftigt og at miljebelastnin- gen minimeres.

»I fremtiden vil designeren ikke vaere den ekspert-autoritet, han eller hun er i dag,« hazvdede Klaus /E. Mogensen. »Designeren bliver i stedet en slags facilitator — altså en servicefunktion, der så at sige laver alt det sure forarbejde i designprocessen og derved hjzlper brugeren til selv at kunne fzrdigge- re de individuelle lasninger.« Som eksem- pel nzvnte han nettjenesten PonokoShop, hvor professionelle designere hjlper for- brugerne med at omsztte deres produkri- deer til ferdige genstande.

Denne #ndrede rollefordeling rejser imidlertid en rekke nye problemer om- kring ophavsret. Mange af de firmaer, pa hvis hjemmesider forbrugerne selv kan de- signe deres produkter — f.eks. sportssko fra Nike — påberåber sig ejerskaber til enhver customize-frembringelse, som måtte opstå heraf. Men det er en gammeldags opfartel- se af ophavsret, der formentlig ikke hol- der i den nye virkelighed, sagde Klaus /. Mogensen. Han foruds3, at fremciden vil byde på store open source-databaser med masser af gratis mobeldesigns, som forbru- gerne selv kan downloade og få produce- ret lokalr.

»Fremover vil vi se en ny skillelinje mel- lem de professionelt fremstillede mobler, hvor der er garanti for kvalitet og design, og de kundedesignede mebler, der bliver »de glade amaterers vark«,« sluctede Klaus JE. Mogensen.

Sporgelysten var stor blandt deltagerne, der både fik inspiration og eftertanker med fra temadagen.

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